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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 November 17
DRY BULK SHIPPING: TAKE GOOD CARE OF THE RECOVERY SAYS PETER SAND
Demand:
Even without much support from Brazilian iron ore exports during August, capesize rates went from $10,000 to $17,000 per day. In Septembe ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY BUOYANT - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were relatively buoyant. Metallurgical coal prices were supported by the stronger steel and iron ore prices, says Daniel Hynes, Senior ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as ...
Monday, 06 November 17
COAL SHORTAGE HURTS INDIA'S HINDALCO AND VEDANTA SAYS BUSINESS STANDARD
Aluminium smelter operations of Vedanta and Hindalco are at risk of turning unviable due to a coal crunch.
According to Business Standard an I ...
Monday, 06 November 17
MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE EXPECTS BUNKER PRICES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD TREND NEXT WEEK
World fuel indexes rose during the week, supported by main oil producers’ statements about possible extension of oil production cut agreement ...
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Showing 1891 to 1895 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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