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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 November 17
DRY BULK SHIPPING: TAKE GOOD CARE OF THE RECOVERY SAYS PETER SAND
Demand:
Even without much support from Brazilian iron ore exports during August, capesize rates went from $10,000 to $17,000 per day. In Septembe ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY BUOYANT - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were relatively buoyant. Metallurgical coal prices were supported by the stronger steel and iron ore prices, says Daniel Hynes, Senior ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as ...
Monday, 06 November 17
COAL SHORTAGE HURTS INDIA'S HINDALCO AND VEDANTA SAYS BUSINESS STANDARD
Aluminium smelter operations of Vedanta and Hindalco are at risk of turning unviable due to a coal crunch.
According to Business Standard an I ...
Monday, 06 November 17
MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE EXPECTS BUNKER PRICES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD TREND NEXT WEEK
World fuel indexes rose during the week, supported by main oil producers’ statements about possible extension of oil production cut agreement ...
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Showing 1891 to 1895 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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