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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 October 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.9 million short tons ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
CYBER COVER FOR E-BILLS - PHILIP STEPHENSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Increasingly popular electronic bills of lading are, by their nature, susceptible to the risk of cyber attack. Here, Stan ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
INDO TO CHINA ROUNDS SUPRAS ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH $14000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
By mid-week the market has been relatively quiet in the Pacific basin as well, but still some healthy rates being achieved on the differ ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
STRONG SIGNAL FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL DEMAND - GREG EVANS
The International Energy Agency’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report, released today, presents a positive outlook for Australian coal produ ...
Wednesday, 25 October 17
COAL MARKETS REMAINED SUBDUED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets remained subdued.
Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ, Coking coal prices were unchanged amid an absence of fresh of ...
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Showing 1901 to 1905 news of total 6871 |
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
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