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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 October 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.9 million short tons ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
CYBER COVER FOR E-BILLS - PHILIP STEPHENSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Increasingly popular electronic bills of lading are, by their nature, susceptible to the risk of cyber attack. Here, Stan ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
INDO TO CHINA ROUNDS SUPRAS ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH $14000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
By mid-week the market has been relatively quiet in the Pacific basin as well, but still some healthy rates being achieved on the differ ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
STRONG SIGNAL FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL DEMAND - GREG EVANS
The International Energy Agency’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report, released today, presents a positive outlook for Australian coal produ ...
Wednesday, 25 October 17
COAL MARKETS REMAINED SUBDUED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets remained subdued.
Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ, Coking coal prices were unchanged amid an absence of fresh of ...
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Showing 1901 to 1905 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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