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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 12 October 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES IN EUROPE AND ASIA PUSHING HIGHER - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets took the lead from the oil market, with thermal coal prices in Europe and Asia pushing higher says Daniel Hynes,Senior Commodity Strat ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
2020 DEBATE AT IBIA'S LISW EVENT: COMPLIANCE & ENFORCEMENT – IT'S COMPLICATED : IBIA
There is no doubt about the start date for the 0.50% marine fuel sulphur limit in MARPOL Annex VI, but questions remain around how it will be enfor ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PPADIMITRIOU
With the majority of second-hand tonnage transactions taking place in the dry bulk sector it’s easy to lose sight of what is happening over a ...
Tuesday, 10 October 17
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - UK P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
- It is common in a lot of trades, whether bulk or oil, to accept a Letter of Indemnity (“LOI”) for non-produ ...
Monday, 09 October 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS NEW HIGH FOR 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 2.13% in October month over month, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchmark pr ...
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Showing 1916 to 1920 news of total 6871 |
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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