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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 12 October 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES IN EUROPE AND ASIA PUSHING HIGHER - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets took the lead from the oil market, with thermal coal prices in Europe and Asia pushing higher says Daniel Hynes,Senior Commodity Strat ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
2020 DEBATE AT IBIA'S LISW EVENT: COMPLIANCE & ENFORCEMENT – IT'S COMPLICATED : IBIA
There is no doubt about the start date for the 0.50% marine fuel sulphur limit in MARPOL Annex VI, but questions remain around how it will be enfor ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PPADIMITRIOU
With the majority of second-hand tonnage transactions taking place in the dry bulk sector it’s easy to lose sight of what is happening over a ...
Tuesday, 10 October 17
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - UK P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
- It is common in a lot of trades, whether bulk or oil, to accept a Letter of Indemnity (“LOI”) for non-produ ...
Monday, 09 October 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS NEW HIGH FOR 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 2.13% in October month over month, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchmark pr ...
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Showing 1916 to 1920 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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