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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 03 October 17
ALLIED MARKET ANALYSIS
It seems as though the future of the oil trade was once again put into the spotlight, as the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference took place last week ...
Friday, 29 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FIFTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
SUPRAMAX: S.CHINA TRIP TO INDIA HAS BEEN FIXED AT AROUND US$ 11000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The hot market seen the last weeks in the Pacific has softened as the Golden week holiday in China approaches and the October shipments ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
THE 'UNREASONABLE' COST OF CASUALTY REPAIRS: ASSOCIATION OF AVERAGE ADJUSTERS CHAIRMAN DETAILS CLAIMS DILEMMAS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ‘unreasonable’ cost of casualty repairs: Association of Average Adjusters chairman details claims dilemma ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
CHINESE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL DOMESTIC IRON ORE MINING RIGHTS - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
It has been reported that China will cancel roughly one third of its iron ore mining licenses, says Commodore Research & Consultancy in its lat ...
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Showing 1926 to 1930 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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