We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 03 October 17
ALLIED MARKET ANALYSIS
It seems as though the future of the oil trade was once again put into the spotlight, as the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference took place last week ...
Friday, 29 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FIFTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
SUPRAMAX: S.CHINA TRIP TO INDIA HAS BEEN FIXED AT AROUND US$ 11000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The hot market seen the last weeks in the Pacific has softened as the Golden week holiday in China approaches and the October shipments ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
THE 'UNREASONABLE' COST OF CASUALTY REPAIRS: ASSOCIATION OF AVERAGE ADJUSTERS CHAIRMAN DETAILS CLAIMS DILEMMAS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ‘unreasonable’ cost of casualty repairs: Association of Average Adjusters chairman details claims dilemma ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
CHINESE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL DOMESTIC IRON ORE MINING RIGHTS - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
It has been reported that China will cancel roughly one third of its iron ore mining licenses, says Commodore Research & Consultancy in its lat ...
|
|
|
Showing 1926 to 1930 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
