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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 14 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT; 390K MT FOR NOV LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal ...
Wednesday, 13 September 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2017 WERE 55% HIGHER COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to a ...
Wednesday, 13 September 17
SOME THOUGHTS ON NORTH KOREA, US & CHINA - THEODORE NTALAKOS
The trade volume between North Korea and China is more than $5 billion per year. 83% of North Korea's exports end up in China; similarly, about ...
Tuesday, 12 September 17
NEWCASTLE FOB PRICES ROSE STRONGLY AND ARE NOW THREATENING TO BREAK THROUGH US$100/T - DANIEL HYNES
COALspot.com: The rise in crude oil market supported further gains in thermal coal, says Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acco ...
Tuesday, 12 September 17
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 2.5 MILLION TONS OF 5700 NAR COAL FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous ...
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Showing 1941 to 1945 news of total 6871 |
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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