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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 14 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT; 390K MT FOR NOV LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal ...
Wednesday, 13 September 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2017 WERE 55% HIGHER COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to a ...
Wednesday, 13 September 17
SOME THOUGHTS ON NORTH KOREA, US & CHINA - THEODORE NTALAKOS
The trade volume between North Korea and China is more than $5 billion per year. 83% of North Korea's exports end up in China; similarly, about ...
Tuesday, 12 September 17
NEWCASTLE FOB PRICES ROSE STRONGLY AND ARE NOW THREATENING TO BREAK THROUGH US$100/T - DANIEL HYNES
COALspot.com: The rise in crude oil market supported further gains in thermal coal, says Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acco ...
Tuesday, 12 September 17
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 2.5 MILLION TONS OF 5700 NAR COAL FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous ...
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Showing 1941 to 1945 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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