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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders ...
Monday, 22 May 17
THE SHIPPING INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Freight market again decline this past week, as BDI and all other indexes show a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic E ...
Friday, 19 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SUPRAMAX : COAL TRIPS TO CHINA WITH VESSELS OPEN INDO HAVE BEEN FIXED AROUND $8000
Supramax
Atlantic market has stayed quiet with no substantial developments.
Cont to Med scrap cargoes have concluded around 11k says Fearnle ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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