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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders ...
Monday, 22 May 17
THE SHIPPING INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Freight market again decline this past week, as BDI and all other indexes show a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic E ...
Friday, 19 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SUPRAMAX : COAL TRIPS TO CHINA WITH VESSELS OPEN INDO HAVE BEEN FIXED AROUND $8000
Supramax
Atlantic market has stayed quiet with no substantial developments.
Cont to Med scrap cargoes have concluded around 11k says Fearnle ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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