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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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