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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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