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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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