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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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