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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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