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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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