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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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