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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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