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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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