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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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