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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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