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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
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