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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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