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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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