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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
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Friday, 04 December 20
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China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
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Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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