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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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