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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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