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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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Showing 706 to 710 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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