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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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