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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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