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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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