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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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