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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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