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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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