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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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