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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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