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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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