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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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