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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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