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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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