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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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