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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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