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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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