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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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