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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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