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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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