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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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