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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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