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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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