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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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