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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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