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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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