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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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