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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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