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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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